What The Fuck White Evangelicals

Before the election, I took a quick look into the voting patterns of white evangelicals, and found that being evangelical strongly predicts white support for Trump, even among the college-educated voters who are increasingly supportive of Democrats.

Looking at 2018, we see a similar pattern. The chart below shows two-party vote for House Republicans by college and evangelical identity among whites.


What about women, who have led the resistance to Trump? Again, this is only true of non-evangelical white women.


And when we analyze college-educated white women by evangelical status?


It’s important not to dismiss these findings. According to our polling, which has been weighted to match the 2018 electorate based on estimates from Catalist (see how they generated their estimates here) white evangelicals make up 22 percent of the electorate and 39 percent of Republican voters. Essentially, the evangelical church has over decades built itself into an electoral force that forms the backbone of the Republican Party.

Sean McElwee